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Multivariate Poisson-lognormal models for jointly modeling crash frequency by severity. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Sign In or Create an Account. Sign In. Advanced Search. Search Menu. Article Navigation.
Close mobile search navigation Article Navigation. Volume 2. Article Contents Introduction. Modeling data breach trends. Related work. Hype and heavy tails: A closer look at data breaches.
Benjamin Edwards , Benjamin Edwards. E-mail: bedwards cs. Oxford Academic. Steven Hofmeyr. Stephanie Forrest. Revision received:. Select Format Select format.
Permissions Icon Permissions. Or if it is, how much worse is it, and what are the trends? The data used to produce these kinds of reports have very high variance, so simply reporting average values, as in these earlier reports, can be misleading. Figure 1 plots breach sizes over the past 10 years using data obtained from a popular dataset published by the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse PRC [ 14 ]. In the figure, data breach sizes span eight orders of magnitude, which means that the average value can be significantly affected by just a few data points.
For example, if we consider the identical data, but plot it on a yearly basis, it appears that breaches have increased in average size since blue line on the figure. However, this trend is not at all obvious if we consider the data on a monthly or even quarterly basis, also shown in Fig.
Thus, there is a need for statistically sound data analyses to determine what, if any, trends exist, and where possible to make predictions about the future. Figure 1. Open in new tab Download slide. We denote the distribution of breach sizes over the number of records contained in individual breaches as S.
For each individual breach i , we denote the number of associated records as s i. To determine the time-independent distribution that best fits the data, we examined over 20 different distributions, e. In each case, we estimated the best fit parameters for the distribution using the maximum likelihood, and then performed a Kolomogorov—Smirnov KS test to determine if the parameterized distribution and the data were statistically significantly different [ 23 ]. Although the best fit is to the log-normal, we can see in Fig.
Figure 2. The distribution of breach sizes and the fit to a log-normal distribution. We are interested in studying how often breaches occur and whether or not there are any trends in breach frequency.
The dataset reports the exact date at which each breach became publicly known. For the majority of dates in the dataset, however, there were no publicly reported data breaches, and on days when breaches did occur, there were seldom more than two Fig. Figure 3. Breach type. Negligent breaches Portable device Lost, discarded or stolen, portable device or media. Open in new tab. Figure 4 shows the median values for models, plotted against the PRC data We show median rather than the mean because it better represents the typical values in heavy tailed distributions.
Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters are given in Table 2. Figure 4. Table 2. We illustrate the effect of the high variability in Figs 5 and 6. Our data only runs to September. Although our model indicates no trend in the size or frequency of breaches, the distribution can generate large year-to-year variations.
These changes are often reported as though they are significant, but our results suggest that they are likely artifacts of the heavy-tailed nature of the data. Figure 5. Figure 6. We used the models derived from the to September data to generate 50 simulations of breaches from 15 September through 15 September For each day in this simulated timespan we generated a random number of breaches using Equation 3 , and then for each simulated breach we generated a random breach size using Equation 1.
We plot the cumulative number of records breached in Fig. Figure 7. We now use our model built on the past decade of data breaches to simulate what breaches we might expect in the next 3 years in the USA. With the current climate and concern over data breaches, there will likely be changes in practices and policy that will change data breach trends.
However, this gives us an opportunity to examine what might occur if the status quo is maintained. Once again we use the same methodology, predicting from 15 September , through 15 September We predict the probability of several different sizes of breaches. The results can be seen in Figs 8 and 9. Figure 8. The predicted probabilities of breach size after 3 years.
Figure 9. Breach size. One year. Three years. The breach size is in millions of records. Dating site Ashley Madison , which marketed itself to married people wishing to have affairs, was hacked in The hackers went on to leak a huge number of customer details via the internet.
Extortionists began to target customers whose names were leaked; unconfirmed reports have linked a number of suicides to exposure by the data breach.
Facebook saw internal software flaws lead to the loss of 29 million users' personal data in This was a particularly embarrassing security breach since the compromised accounts included that of company CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
Marriott Hotels announced a security and data breach affecting up to million customers' records in However, its guest reservations system had been hacked in - the breach wasn't discovered until two years later. Perhaps most embarrassing of all, being a cybersecurity firm doesn't make you immune - Czech company Avast disclosed a security breach in when a hacker managed to compromise an employee's VPN credentials.
This breach didn't threaten customer details but was instead aimed at inserting malware into Avast's products. Types of security breaches There are a number of types of security breaches depending on how access has been gained to the system: An exploit attacks a system vulnerability, such as an out of date operating system. Legacy systems which haven't been updated, for instance, in businesses where outdated and versions of Microsoft Windows that are no longer supported are being used, are particularly vulnerable to exploits.
Weak passwords can be cracked or guessed. Malware attacks, such as phishing emails can be used to gain entry. It only takes one employee to click on a link in a phishing email to allow malicious software to start spreading throughout the network.
Drive-by downloads use viruses or malware delivered through a compromised or spoofed website. Social engineering can also be used to gain access. For instance, an intruder phones an employee claiming to be from the company's IT helpdesk and asks for the password in order to 'fix' the computer.
What to do if you experience a security breach As a customer of a major company, if you learn that it has had a security breach, or if you find out that your own computer has been compromised, then you need to act quickly to ensure your safety.
If a breach could involve your financial information, notify any banks and financial institutions with which you have accounts. Change the passwords on all your accounts. If there are security questions and answers or PIN codes attached to the account, you should change these too. You might consider a credit freeze. This stops anyone using your data for identity theft and borrowing in your name. Check your credit report to ensure you know if anyone is applying for debt using your details.
Try to find out exactly what data might have been stolen. That will give you an idea of the severity of the situation. For instance, if tax details and SSNs have been stolen, you'll need to act fast to ensure your identity isn't stolen. This is more serious than simply losing your credit card details. Don't respond directly to requests from a company to give them personal data after a data breach; it could be a social engineering attack. Take the time to read the news, check the company's website, or even phone their customer service line to check if the requests are legitimate.
Be on your guard for other types of social engineering attacks. For instance, a criminal who has accessed a hotel's accounts, even without financial data, could ring customers asking for feedback on their recent stay.
At the end of the call, having established a relationship of trust, the criminal could offer a refund of parking charges and ask for the customer's card number in order to make the payment. Most customers probably wouldn't think twice about providing those details if the call is convincing. Monitor your accounts for signs of any new activity.
If you see transactions that you don't recognize, address them immediately. How to protect yourself against a security breach Although no one is immune to a data breach, good computer security habits can make you less vulnerable and can help you survive a breach with less disruption. Data breaches are becoming more and more common and some of the most recent data breaches have been the largest on record to date.
There are also proactive approaches security professionals can take in order to lower their chances of experiencing a breach. Identifying cybersecurity risks to your data can be a good place to start. See how companies are shifting their budgets and priorities to protect their assets and customers from cyberattacks. Click the button below to compare these insights to the stats from Companies need to examine lessons from the GDPR and update their data governance practices as more iterations are expected in the coming years.
Today, modern solutions offer great protection and a more proactive approach to security to ensure the safety of sensitive information. Examine your data breach response plan and try a free risk assessment to see where your vulnerabilities lie.
The following resources offer additional information on the improvement of data protection and tips for data breach prevention. In order to mitigate the risk that comes along with data loss, many companies are now purchasing data breach insurance to support their data breach prevention and mitigation plans. Data breach insurance helps cover the costs associated with a data security breach.
It can be used to support and protect a wide range of components, such as public relations crises, protection solutions and liability. It may also cover any legal fees accumulated from the breach. With many different kinds of consequences that occur due to a data breach, significant time and money will be spent to recover.
From recovering data and notifying stakeholders, first-party insurance covers the following:. Third-party insurance is primarily used by contractors and IT professionals to lessen their liability. The covered expenses may include things such as the following:. Below are some of the most frequently asked questions about data breaches with answers supported by data breach statistics and facts. A: The Privacy Rights Clearinghouse keeps a chronology of data and public security breaches dating back to The actual number of data breaches is not known.
The Privacy Rights Clearinghouse estimated that there have been 9, public breaches since , however more can be presumed since the organization does not report on breaches where the number of compromised records is unknown.
A: Yahoo holds the record for the largest data breach of all time with 3 billion compromised accounts Statista. A: There were 3, confirmed data breaches in Verizon. A: 25, records IBM. Avoid being a data breach statistic by doing everything possible to protect your business from experiencing a breach. For more information on data security platforms learn how data protection solutions could positively impact your business.
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